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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 14 at the 60

Buffalo Bills 14 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(1:50) 8-S.Martin punts 52 yards to PIT 8, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 19-C.Austin.

The Three Options

GO -1.29 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +3.16 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 60, worth -3.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 19, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model