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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 7 at the 72

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Buffalo Bills 21

What Actually Happened

(6:17) 6-P.Harvin punts 51 yards to BUF 21, Center-46-C.Kuntz, downed by PIT-13-M.Boykin.

The Three Options

GO -1.97 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.57 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 72, worth -4.24 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 30, worth -1.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model