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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 7 at the 31

Buffalo Bills 21 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(2:23) 2-T.Bass 49 yard field goal is BLOCKED (57-M.Adams), Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin, RECOVERED by PIT-51-Ni.Herbig at BUF 34. 51-Ni.Herbig to BUF 33 for 1 yard (85-Q.Morris).

The Three Options

GO +0.62 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.37 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 31, worth -1.51 EP
KICK +0.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 41, worth -1.90 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model