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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 1 at the 55

Buffalo Bills 21 – Pittsburgh Steelers 10

What Actually Happened

(6:28) 17-J.Allen up the middle to BUF 46 for 1 yard (97-C.Heyward).

The Three Options

GO +1.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.64 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 55, worth -2.88 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.46 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 16, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model