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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 8 at the 27

Buffalo Bills 21 – Pittsburgh Steelers 10

What Actually Happened

(1:36) 2-T.Bass 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +1.00 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.81 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 27, worth -0.92 EP
KICK +1.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 37, worth -1.88 EP
PUNT +0.08 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model