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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 9 at the 9

Buffalo Bills 31 – Pittsburgh Steelers 17

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 2-T.Bass 27 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +1.14 EP
  • 30% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.56 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 9, worth -0.73 EP
KICK +1.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.58 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21, worth -1.21 EP
PUNT -0.79 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.79 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model