Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 4 at the 69

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Buffalo Bills 7

(5:33) 6-P.Harvin punts 42 yards to BUF 27, Center-46-C.Kuntz, downed by PIT-13-M.Boykin.

The Three Options

GO -1.51 EP

48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.25 EP
52% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 69, worth -4.06 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model