Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 9 at the 74

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Buffalo Bills 14

(3:20) 6-P.Harvin punts 30 yards to BUF 44, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 11-D.Harty.

The Three Options

GO -2.45 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.36 EP
65% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 74, worth -4.54 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model