4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 5 at the 82

San Francisco 49ers 14 – Green Bay Packers 21

What Actually Happened

(3:54) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 48 yards to GB 34, Center-46-T.Pepper. 11-J.Reed pushed ob at GB 38 for 4 yards (53-D.Winters).

The Three Options

GO -1.70 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +1.04 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 82, worth -4.80 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -1.95 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 40, worth -1.95 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model