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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 8 at the 11

Green Bay Packers 0 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(7:26) 17-A.Carlson 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

The Three Options

GO +1.94 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.13 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP
KICK +1.56 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 22, worth -1.11 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP