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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 3 at the 68

Houston Texans 0 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(13:40) 11-C.Johnston punts 54 yards to BAL 14, Center-46-J.Weeks. 13-D.Duvernay to BAL 25 for 11 yards (37-D.Ross; 43-N.Hewitt).

The Three Options

GO -1.23 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.36 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 68, worth -4.22 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.65 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 26, worth -1.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP