Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 10 at the 78

Baltimore Ravens 10 – Houston Texans 3

(4:34) 11-J.Stout punts 45 yards to HOU 33, Center-69-T.Ott. 82-S.Sims for 67 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO -2.07 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.63 EP
63% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 78, worth -4.24 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model