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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 8 at the 29

Houston Texans 10 – Baltimore Ravens 10

What Actually Happened

(:37) 15-K.Fairbairn 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

The Three Options

GO +0.77 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +3.90 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 29, worth -0.74 EP
KICK +1.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 76% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.33 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 39, worth -1.35 EP
PUNT -0.11 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model