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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 14 at the 43

Houston Texans 10 – Baltimore Ravens 17

What Actually Happened

(6:34) 11-C.Johnston punts 36 yards to BAL 7, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-37-D.Ross.

The Three Options

GO -0.59 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.07 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 43, worth -2.25 EP
KICK -0.97 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -2.81 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 12, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model