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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 1 at the 49

Baltimore Ravens 17 – Houston Texans 10

What Actually Happened

(2:12) 8-L.Jackson left end to HOU 35 for 14 yards (48-C.Harris).

The Three Options

GO +1.25 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.91 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.70 EP
KICK -1.51 EP
  • 25% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.12 EP
  • 75% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.72 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 14, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model