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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 3 at the 26

Baltimore Ravens 31 – Houston Texans 10

What Actually Happened

(4:07) (Shotgun) 43-J.Hill right end pushed ob at HOU 21 for 5 yards (24-D.Stingley).

The Three Options

GO +0.78 EP
What Happened
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +2.95 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 26, worth -1.39 EP
KICK +1.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.61 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 36, worth -1.71 EP
PUNT -0.58 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model