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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 14 at the 25

Baltimore Ravens 31 – Houston Texans 10

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 9-J.Tucker 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-11-J.Stout.

The Three Options

GO -0.43 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +2.42 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 25, worth -1.44 EP
KICK +1.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.59 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 35, worth -1.70 EP
PUNT -0.78 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model