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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 13 at the 32

Houston Texans 0 – Baltimore Ravens 3

What Actually Happened

(:33) 15-K.Fairbairn 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

The Three Options

GO -0.10 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.56 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 32, worth -1.74 EP
KICK +0.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 42, worth -2.45 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model