4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 11 at the 11

Kansas City Chiefs 3 – Buffalo Bills 10

What Actually Happened

(9:15) 7-H.Butker 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +1.11 EP
  • 26% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.56 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 11, worth -0.46 EP
KICK +1.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.58 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 22, worth -1.20 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model