Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 5 at the 60

Buffalo Bills 10 – Kansas City Chiefs 6

(6:18) 8-S.Martin punts 40 yards to KC 20, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 17-R.James to KC 35 for 15 yards (3-D.Hamlin).

The Three Options

GO -0.60 EP

46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.41 EP
54% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 60, worth -3.17 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model