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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 9 at the 49

Kansas City Chiefs 27 – Buffalo Bills 24

What Actually Happened

(8:31) 5-T.Townsend punts 49 yards to end zone, Center-41-J.Winchester, Touchback. Kick into end zone.

The Three Options

GO -0.60 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.01 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -2.38 EP
KICK -1.22 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.77 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -2.41 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 14, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model