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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 10 at the 56

Detroit Lions 10 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3

What Actually Happened

(6:51) 3-J.Fox punts 43 yards to TB 13, Center-43-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 83-D.Thompkins.

The Three Options

GO -0.79 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +3.04 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 56, worth -2.84 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 17, worth -0.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model