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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 5 at the 32

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3 – Detroit Lions 10

What Actually Happened

(2:29) 4-C.McLaughlin 50 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

The Three Options

GO +0.77 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.01 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 32, worth -1.69 EP
KICK +0.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 78% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 42, worth -2.16 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model