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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 10 at the 85

Detroit Lions 10 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10

What Actually Happened

(9:23) 3-J.Fox punts 45 yards to TB 40, Center-43-J.McQuaide, downed by DET-42-J.Reeves-Maybin.

The Three Options

GO -2.58 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +1.16 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 85, worth -4.91 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -2.10 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 43, worth -2.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model