Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 14 at the 64

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10 – Detroit Lions 10

What Actually Happened

(8:22) 5-J.Camarda punts 41 yards to DET 23, Center-97-Z.Triner. 19-D.Peoples-Jones to DET 31 for 8 yards (87-P.Durham). PENALTY on TB-8-S.Dennis, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at DET 31.

The Three Options

GO -1.70 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.74 EP
69% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 64, worth -3.69 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model