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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q3
Detroit Lions
4th & 1 at the 1
Detroit Lions 10 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10
What Actually Happened
(3:51) 13-C.Reynolds up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
The Three Options
GO
+4.18 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
66% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.11 EP
- 34% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 1, worth +0.48 EP
KICK
+2.10 EP
- 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
- 1% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.61 EP
PUNT
+0.06 EP
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
