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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 4 at the 69

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17 – Detroit Lions 24

What Actually Happened

(12:23) 5-J.Camarda punts 58 yards to DET 11, Center-97-Z.Triner, downed by TB-19-D.Moore.

The Three Options

GO -1.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.55 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 69, worth -3.82 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.20 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 27, worth -1.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model