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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 4 at the 4

Detroit Lions 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(8:28) 17-M.Badgley 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-J.McQuaide, Holder-3-J.Fox.

The Three Options

GO +3.08 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.38 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 4, worth +0.58 EP
KICK +2.36 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.41 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.34 EP
PUNT +0.30 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.72 EP