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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 9 at the 25

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Detroit Lions 3

What Actually Happened

(4:23) 4-C.McLaughlin 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

The Three Options

GO +0.66 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.70 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25, worth -1.33 EP
KICK +1.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 35, worth -2.20 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model