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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 10 at the 75

San Francisco 49ers 7 – Detroit Lions 21

What Actually Happened

(5:09) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 56 yards to DET 19, Center-46-T.Pepper. 19-D.Peoples-Jones ran ob at DET 29 for 10 yards (89-C.Woerner).

The Three Options

GO -1.74 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.75 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 75, worth -4.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 32, worth -1.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model