Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 9 at the 74

Detroit Lions 24 – San Francisco 49ers 24

(2:13) 3-J.Fox punts 74 yards to end zone, Center-43-J.McQuaide, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -2.02 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.53 EP
60% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 74, worth -4.39 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model