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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Detroit Lions
4th & 3 at the 30
Detroit Lions 24 – San Francisco 49ers 27
What Actually Happened
(7:38) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete deep right to 14-A.St. Brown.
The Three Options
GO
+1.66 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.30 EP
- 47% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30, worth -1.28 EP
KICK
+1.11 EP
- 79% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
- 21% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 40, worth -1.76 EP
PUNT
-0.19 EP
- San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.19 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
