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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 3 at the 3

Detroit Lions 24 – San Francisco 49ers 34

What Actually Happened

(1:00) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 9-J.Williams for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +3.10 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.33 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 3, worth -0.03 EP
KICK +2.32 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.36 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.47 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model