Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 13 at the 71

San Francisco 49ers 3 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

What Actually Happened

(9:26) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 51 yards to KC 20, Center-46-T.Pepper. 17-R.James MUFFS catch, and recovers at KC 20. 17-R.James to KC 20 for no gain (89-C.Woerner; 9-B.Willis).

The Three Options

GO -2.08 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.03 EP
66% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 71, worth -4.20 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model