Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 13 at the 83

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – San Francisco 49ers 3

(7:56) 5-T.Townsend punts 50 yards to SF 33, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 3-R.McCloud.

The Three Options

GO -2.60 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.61 EP
67% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 83, worth -4.69 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model