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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 1 at the 89

Kansas City Chiefs 3 – San Francisco 49ers 10

What Actually Happened

(10:53) 5-T.Townsend punts 53 yards to SF 36, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 3-R.McCloud.

The Three Options

GO -1.33 EP
Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 88, worth -0.06 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 89, worth -5.02 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

PUNT -2.66 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 46, worth -2.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.33 EP