Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 11 at the 65

San Francisco 49ers 10 – Kansas City Chiefs 3

(9:10) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 51 yards to KC 14, Center-46-T.Pepper. 17-R.James to KC 14 for no gain (84-C.Conley).

The Three Options

GO -1.42 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.61 EP
64% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 65, worth -3.68 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model