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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 4 at the 67

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(10:24) 5-T.Townsend punts 43 yards to SF 24, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 3-R.McCloud.

The Three Options

GO -0.67 EP
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +2.27 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 67, worth -3.66 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 25, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model