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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 2 at the 65

Kansas City Chiefs 6 – San Francisco 49ers 10

What Actually Happened

(2:42) 5-T.Townsend punts 40 yards to SF 25, Center-41-J.Winchester. 28-D.Luter MUFFS catch, touched at SF 19, RECOVERED by KC-35-Ja.Watson at SF 16.

The Three Options

GO -0.32 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.77 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 65, worth -3.69 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.89 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 23, worth -0.89 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EP