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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 5 at the 35

San Francisco 49ers 16 – Kansas City Chiefs 16

What Actually Happened

(1:57) 4-J.Moody 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +0.66 EP
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +2.90 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 35, worth -1.16 EP
KICK +1.09 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.10 EP
  • 28% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 45, worth -1.49 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model