4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 5 at the 13

Kansas City Chiefs 10 – Baltimore Ravens 7

What Actually Happened

(5:47) 7-H.Butker 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

The Three Options

GO +1.83 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.38 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 13, worth -0.35 EP
KICK +1.56 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 23, worth -0.83 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model