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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 8 at the 35

Baltimore Ravens 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 13

What Actually Happened

(1:55) 9-J.Tucker 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

The Three Options

GO +0.29 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.01 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 35, worth -1.67 EP
KICK +0.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.60 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 45, worth -2.21 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model