4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 4 at the 14

Baltimore Ravens 17 – Kansas City Chiefs 27

What Actually Happened

(4:58) 9-J.Tucker 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

The Three Options

GO +1.75 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +4.86 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 14, worth -0.61 EP
KICK +1.60 EP
What Happened
  • 95% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 24, worth -1.11 EP
PUNT -0.54 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model