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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 5 at the 50

Baltimore Ravens 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 7

What Actually Happened

(3:03) 11-J.Stout punts 40 yards to KC 10, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 17-M.Hardman.

The Three Options

GO -0.48 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.75 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 50, worth -3.02 EP
KICK -1.75 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.32 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -3.02 EP
PUNT -0.80 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 14, worth -0.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP