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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 18 at the 56

Kansas City Chiefs 7 – Baltimore Ravens 7

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 14-M.Araiza punts 56 yards to end zone, Center-41-J.Winchester, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.24 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.54 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 56, worth -2.79 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 17, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model