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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 18 at the 67

Carolina Panthers 0 – New Orleans Saints 17

What Actually Happened

(12:19) 10-J.Hekker punts 46 yards to NO 21, Center-44-J.Jansen. 22-R.Shaheed pushed ob at NO 26 for 5 yards (83-D.Moore).

The Three Options

GO -2.37 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.60 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 67, worth -3.90 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 25, worth -1.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model