4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 15 at the 34

New Orleans Saints 20 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(2:12) 19-B.Grupe 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-43-M.Hayball.

The Three Options

GO +0.16 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.83 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 34, worth -1.50 EP
KICK +0.72 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 44, worth -2.04 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model