4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 15 at the 90

Carolina Panthers 0 – New Orleans Saints 23

What Actually Happened

(1:41) 10-J.Hekker punts 53 yards to NO 37, Center-44-J.Jansen. 22-R.Shaheed to CAR 16 for 47 yards (84-F.Franks).

The Three Options

GO -3.39 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +0.91 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 90, worth -5.08 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

PUNT -2.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 47, worth -2.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model