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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 3 at the 3

Carolina Panthers 3 – New Orleans Saints 37

What Actually Happened

(5:00) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young scrambles up the middle to NO 1 for 2 yards (29-P.Adebo). FUMBLES (29-P.Adebo), recovered by CAR-15-J.Mingo at NO 1. The Replay Official reviewed the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 9-B.Young scrambles up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +2.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.50 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 3, worth -0.08 EP
KICK +1.53 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.56 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 21, worth -0.86 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model