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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 3 at the 48

New Orleans Saints 47 – Carolina Panthers 10

What Actually Happened

(2:22) 43-M.Hayball punts 35 yards to CAR 13, Center-49-Z.Wood, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.32 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.09 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 48, worth -1.70 EP
KICK -0.24 EP
  • 41% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
  • 59% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -1.72 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EP